After failing to defend the monthly opening range, the gold price is vulnerable.

Gold Price: Things to Talk About

The price of gold has gone up from a new monthly low of $1643 as it tries to make up for the loss caused by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. However, it may not be able to keep going up from the annual low of $1615 if it can't defend the range it was in at the beginning of October.

After failing to stay in its opening range for the month, the gold price is in danger.

The price of gold seems to be repeating what happened in August, as it followed the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($1711), and the precious metal may continue to fall in the coming days as Treasury yields reach new yearly highs.

Expectations for higher US interest rates seem to be dragging down the price of gold as the Federal Reserve keeps doing what it's doing to fight inflation. The price of bullion may face more headwinds before the next Fed interest rate decision on November 2 as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to follow a very restrictive policy.

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In the future, the CME FedWatch Tool says there is a higher than 90% chance of another 75bp rate hike. This is because prices are still going up in the US, and the FOMC may give hawkish forward guidance for the rest of the year to try to keep inflation in check.

With that in mind, gold may continue to follow the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($1711) as it fights to stay above the moving average, and gold may give up the recovery from the annual low ($1615) if it can't defend the opening range for October.

After failing to stay above the 50-Day SMA ($1713), gold is now trading at a new monthly low ($1643). The precious metal may continue to follow the downward slope of the moving average, as it did in August.

For the Fibonacci overlap at $1601 (38.2% expansion) to $1618 (50% retracement) to be on the radar, the price must close below the $1648 (50% expansion) zone. A break below $1584 (78.6% retracement) brings the April 2020 low ($1568) into play.

But if the price of gold doesn't close below the $1648 (50% expansion) zone, it may stay in a narrow range. If the price goes above the $1690 (61.8% retracement) to $1695 (61.8% expansion) area, it's more likely that the moving average will be tested again.

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